How the scores work

Every score is calculated from the records on this site, nothing else. Each one says how many records it is based on, and we hide it when there are fewer than 3.

Loyalty index (brands)

0 to 100. We take the average tenure, in years, of every agency relationship the brand has had, and multiply it by 10. We then take off 5 points for each agency change in the last ten years, divided by the number of disciplines the brand buys. A brand that keeps agencies for ten years scores near 100. A brand that changes every two years scores in the teens or lower. Records: decided moves for that brand.

CMO movement rating (people)

0 to 10. For each marketing-lead role a person has held, we check whether the brand changed an agency within 12 months of them starting. Seventy per cent of the score is the share of roles where that happened; thirty per cent is how many agency changes they oversaw overall. Seven or more is a "high mover". On brand pages we show the reverse: of the CMOs who joined the brand, how many changed an agency in their first year. Records: roles plus moves during those roles.

Pitch predictor (brands)

We take the median length of the brand's own past agency relationships and project it forward from the start of each current relationship to get a likely review window. The 12-month chance starts at 10%, rises by up to 50 points as the current tenure approaches the brand's typical tenure, and by 25 points when the marketing lead has been in the role for under 18 months. It is capped at 90%. For government buyers, see contracts ending on the tenders page. Records: completed relationships plus CMO roles; we need at least two completed relationships.

League table

A win is an appointment that replaces another agency or is new business. A loss is when the incumbent is replaced. Retentions are counted separately. Net billings are estimated billings won minus lost; estimates come from trade press and may be rough.

These are simple models for orientation, not forecasts to bet on. Suggestions welcome at tips@accountmoves.com.